令人驚嘆的亞馬遜

AMZN's share of U.S. retail growth is growing significantly.

§ In 2015, we expect AMZN will account for more than half of E-commerce growth:

o For every $1 of E-commerce growth, AMZN will take $0.51.

o For every $1 of total adj. retail growth, AMZN will take $0.24.

o Think about the inverse of that: EVERY OTHER retailer is fighting for

$0.49 and $0.76 of each dollar, respectively.

§ AMZN's share gains are accelerating, on our numbers.

o AMZN's U.S. E-commerce share will grow 400 bps (its fastest ever) this

year to 26%, up from 22% last year and 16% in '11.

§ We believe that the accelerating gains are explained by one word: Prime

o We estimate AMZN Prime members now account for ~25% of total U.S.

households (this is likely quite conservative).

o We continue to believe that 50% of U.S. households will be Prime by

2020 (also a conservative estimate, as explained below).

§ There is still a lot of room to grow as AMZN accounts for just 3.5% of total adj.

U.S. retail sales (excl. autos, food and beverage, and gas).

Fig 1 AMZN Share Gains Accelerating

Source: Company Data, U.S. Department of Commerce, Macquarie Research, December 2015

While 2015 saw AMZN's stock appreciate 114% in large part based on AWS, we

believe that Prime will lead to more gains in 2016. We are raising our AMZN