Wag的執行長即將在2015年H1退休，就在完成對英國博茲藥局的併購之後，新的執行長預計為英國博茲藥局現任的CEO。此外，晨星認為WAG很有可能重新返回避稅的這條路，這個作法將有機會替公司的股東帶來巨大的價值。這個主意最早來自於2014/4，當時一群持有WAG5％的股東要求公司在併購英國博茲藥局，順道將總部遷往英國，以節省稅收。
事實上，美國是以高稅收聞名，而英國目前一系列的減稅的動作，讓許多企業決定遷往英國，不只是企業稅，英國倫敦的房地產相當火熱，也是因為對外國人提供不少稅收優惠。
Walgreen WAG announced on Dec. 10 that CEO Greg Wasson will retire after the completion of the second phase of the Alliance Boots acquisition, which we expect to close during the first half of calendar 2015. Wasson will be replaced by current Alliance Boots Executive Chairman Stefano Pessina as interim CEO until a replacement can be found. This development is not a major surprise, and we are maintaining our $58 fair value estimate. However, we believe that the possibility that the firm may revisit a corporate tax inversion strategy has increased materially. If Walgreen executes an inversion strategy it could add a signif icant amount of shareholder value. Nevertheless, we remain cautious about factoring this variable into our fair value estimate until we see more concrete plans from the new management.
Vishnu Lekraj
Rayonier RYN announced Wednesday that it would reorganize financial leadership roles within the company. Ed Kiker, a longtime Rayonier veteran and current chief financial officer, will move to the newly created position of chief accounting officer, where he will oversee financial reporting, accounting operations, and internal controls. We appreciate the additional focus on these critical duties, given internal control and reporting shortcomings in the past (see our Nov. 10 note). Notably, the company has already added depth to its disclosures under new management, which we hope will be a sign of things to come under Kiker. Mark McHugh will step into the CFO role. McHugh is an investment banker by trade, most recently at Raymond James, where he has been advi sing Rayonier senior management since the spin-off of Rayonier Advanced Materials. Capital markets experience will be a more important attribute for the CFO position than the board had likely anticipated when it appointed Kiker to the role early this year. Following the November disclosure that the firm had been overharvesting in the Pacific Northwest, free cash flow potential is more modest than the board (and investors) previously thought, implying greater prospective reliance on external funding sources. In November, Morningstar cut its credit rating of Rayonier to BBB- from BBB+ largely based on this new information.
Daniel Rohr, CFA
TSO石油：晨星認為TSO的競爭優勢持續改善，即便在本週三的法說會之後。法說會公司更具體提出2015年的EBIT目標，可達到$505 million-$670 million，較2014年的505 million-$565 million更成長不少。
TSO是一家在東岸與西岸都有煉油廠的石油業者，而東岸由於靠近頁岩油產地，因此成本低。而近期雖然飽受環保批評，但預估將會建成的鐵路與港口，讓石油可以從東岸運到西岸，這將會讓TSO取得很低的成本，也是未來公司基本轉折的一大基礎。
An improving competitive position has been a central tenet of our thesis on Tesoro TSO, and our view is unchanged after the firm's annual analyst day Wednesday. In fact, the scope of improvement is greater than we anticipated. After highlighting the $505 million-$565 million in EBITDA improvement it's on track to deliver in 2014, management laid out its expectations for another $505 million-$670 million improvement in 2015. Furthermore, Tesoro is targeting an additional $460 million-$615 million in EBITDA improvement between 2016 and 2017. The increases will come from a mix of improved West Coast refining operations, greater margin capture throughout its system, and logistics growth. While every refiner seeks to improve operations, Tesoro has set it self apart with the degree of improvement. Additionally, it has pursued a differentiated logistics and MLP growth strategy with great success. Having spurred the growth of its master limited partnership, TLLP, through acquisition (Carson refinery logistics and QEPFS), Tesoro plans to expand TLLP organically and through drop-downs, resulting in EBITDA rising to $1 billion in 2017 from $300 million this year. Also, it will continue to pursue third-party volume growth through acquisition. We see the potential for earnings and value growth through improved refining operations and logistics growth as unique in the sector. Additionally, Tesoro should benefit from the tailwind of an improving California market. For the entire note, click here.
Allen Good, CFA
MCD新聞主要講訂製化菜單。目前股價晨星認為低於公平價值，並預估即使遇到困境，明年仍會成長（3%-5% annual sales growth, 6%-7% average annual operating income growth。）
With McDonald's MCD beset by increased competitive pressures, evolving consumer preferences, and self-inflicted issues, its investor event Wednesday gave management an opportunity to showcase its vision for the future and plans to reshape its business model. Among the key measures highlighted were a streamlined menu structure, a more relevant consumer Experience of the Future (highlighted by the personalized Create Your Taste platform), and more menu and marketing decisions made at the local/regional level. While we view these steps as appropriate, the pace of these improvements remains a concern, especially against a backdrop of heavy industry promotional activity and accelerating fast-casual competition. Still, we believe these efforts have m erit and, once implemented, will help to drive same-restaurant sales and operating margin improvement. There is no change to our $95 fair value estimate following the event, and we believe the sources of our wide moat rating--wide brand recognition, a cohesive franchisee system, and meaningful scale advantages--are intact. The later years of our discounted cash flow model remain aligned with the low end of management's longer-term objectives, including 3%-5% annual sales growth, 6%-7% average annual operating income growth, and return on invested capital in the high teens. For the entire note, click here.
R.J. Hottovy, CFA
晨星調高SHPG的公平價值到195元，目前股價為214元，調高依據主要為公司的藥物上市機率上升。晨星認為公司在2020年，將有機會再增加30億美元的營收。（目前營收為60億美元，亦即新的藥物可帶來多出50％得的營收）。
We are modestly increasing our Shire SHPG fair value estimate to $195 per ADR (from $187) following the firm's research and development day, which improved our confidence in several of its earlier and mid-stage pipeline assets. We are not as bullish as management, which reiterated its 2020 target of $3 billion in incremental revenue from its existing pipeline, and we remain skeptical of its growth by acquisition strategy, which has yielded uneven results to date. Nevertheless, the company's increasing focus on rare diseases could lead to a widening of its narrow moat stable trend rating, should recent and expected future acquisitions in the orphan space prove successful. Despite our FVE increase, we think Shire shares are fully valued at rece nt prices.The broad take-away from the presentation is that the company's mid- and early-stage pipeline and R&D focus have been significantly reoriented toward rare disease opportunities, with Phase II programs for SHP625 (Lumena acquisition) in four different rare cholestatic liver disease populations and SHP607 (Premacure acquisition) for the prevention of retinopathy in premature babies as key assets that will be reporting clinical data in 2015. For the entire note, click here.
Stefan Quenneville, CFA
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